The third quarter of 2026 ended in profit for both Classic strategies: Classic Diversified returned +35.46% and Classic Stable +10.40%. September itself finished close to zero, with Classic Diversified at +1.45% and Classic Stable at −2.09%.
Performance
| September | Year to date | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross | Net 25% | Gross | Net 25% | |
| Spike Diversified (simulated) | −3.03% | −3.03% | +39.00% | +18.70% |
| Spike Stable (simulated) | −1.71% | −1.71% | +43.55% | +21.72% |
| Classic Diversified | +1.45% | +1.45% | +28.33% | +24.54% |
| Classic Stable | −2.09% | −2.09% | +35.67% | +25.21% |
| 12 months | Since 1 January 2024 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross | Net 25% | Gross | |
| Spike Diversified (simulated) | +124.89% | +87.59% | +460% |
| Spike Stable (simulated) | +128.43% | +92.65% | +417% |
| Classic Diversified | +18.93% | +13.22% | +514% |
| Classic Stable | +39.10% | +28.37% | +399% |
Portfolio manager’s comment
The third quarter ended in profit for both Classic strategies. The second quarter had been a loss for both. Since 1 January 2024, neither Classic strategy has recorded two negative quarters in a row, on gross or on net 25% figures, and the third quarter kept that pattern.
Three different months
July continued the sideways market. Bitcoin traded in a narrow range of $60,000–66,000 for the whole month, and the volatility index stayed near multi-year lows. This is the hardest environment for trend-following algorithms. Classic Diversified returned −1.39% and Classic Stable −3.36%.
August brought the impulse. On 19 August the market broke out of its multi-month range, and about $3 billion of short positions were liquidated within a day. Buybacks of bonds by the US Treasury, a weaker dollar and expectations for the CLARITY Act, the US crypto-asset regulation bill, supported the move. The algorithms captured it: Classic Diversified returned +35.40% and Classic Stable +16.68%.
September brought sharp moves in both directions. On 15 September the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, with 49 votes against 50. On 16 September the Federal Reserve raised its rate by 25 basis points, the first increase in three years. Bitcoin fell towards $75,000, then reversed sharply to an eight-month high near $87,000, helped by the largest weekly inflow into spot ETFs of the year, about $2.4 billion. Even the $387 million hack of the Bitget exchange did not stop the rebound. Frequent reversals without a sustained trend are an awkward environment for trend-following systems, so September finished near zero: Classic Stable returned −2.09% and Classic Diversified +1.45%, helped by the bitcoin in its collateral.
Collateral
Algotoria raised the bitcoin share of the Classic Diversified collateral during the decline in spring and summer. In the third quarter this added materially to the return of the algorithms. After the latest rise, near $83,000, the collateral-management algorithm cut the bitcoin share to 30%, which locked in part of the gain.
The twelve months and Spike
The longer horizon matters more than any single quarter. In the twelve months to 30 September 2026 the crypto market went through a fall of more than 50%, a multi-month sideways phase and a sharp recovery. Over the same period Classic Stable returned +39.10% and Classic Diversified +18.93%, against −26.68% for Bitcoin and −27.75% for BITA Crypto 10. These figures are gross of performance fees.
The report also shows Spike, a new strategy based on neural networks. Over twelve months the simulated Spike Diversified returned +124.89% and Spike Stable +128.43%. These are simulations in forward testing, not returns on client funds. The outcome of the test will decide whether Spike is added to client portfolios.
The fourth quarter
Volatility has returned to the market, and it is the main condition for the algorithms. In the fourth quarter the investment team is watching the next steps of the Federal Reserve, the level of yields on long-dated US Treasuries, and the future of crypto-asset regulation in the United States after the CLARITY Act stalled. Each of these can produce a strong directional move, and the Classic algorithms can take long and short positions. In parallel, the team continues to widen the portfolio with countertrend and long-only algorithms.