The New World (Dis)Order
The post-Bretton-Woods consensus on currency, debt and trade is being repriced live — a decade-long regime change, not a one-week shock. The US Dollar Index fell roughly 10% over the 2025 calendar year, the steepest six-month decline since 1973; gold gained ~64% over the same window.
Global public debt is on track to cross 100% of GDP by 2029 — the highest ratio since 1948 — and fiscal policy now constrains monetary policy.
Trade between geopolitically aligned blocs is growing ~4% faster than cross-bloc trade; FDI in tariff-exposed sectors is projected to fall ~25% in 2025. What used to be tail risk is now the baseline.
Implication: qualified capital needs exposures that survive any single currency, regulator, or rail under stress.
Source · IMF Fiscal Monitor (Apr 2026) · McKinsey MGI 2026 · ICE / Trading Economics · UNCTAD.