Both Classic strategies lost in October 2026: Classic Diversified returned −10.64% and Classic Stable −6.90%. The market fell as well, with Bitcoin at −7.28% and BITA Crypto 10 at −13.04%.
Performance
| October | Year to date | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross | Net 25% | Gross | Net 25% | |
| Spike Diversified (simulated) | −1.58% | −4.33% | +33.37% | +17.60% |
| Spike Stable (simulated) | +0.36% | −1.42% | +31.20% | +16.82% |
| Classic Diversified | −10.64% | −11.68% | +14.68% | +9.99% |
| Classic Stable | −6.90% | −6.90% | +26.31% | +16.56% |
| 12 months | Since 1 January 2024 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross | Net 25% | Gross | |
| Spike Diversified (simulated) | +33.89% | +18.06% | +201% |
| Spike Stable (simulated) | +32.22% | +17.73% | +130% |
| Classic Diversified | −6.68% | −10.50% | +449% |
| Classic Stable | +13.07% | +4.35% | +365% |
Portfolio manager’s comment
October was a difficult month for our strategies. The market has changed: inside the trend structure there are now noticeably more sideways stretches. Directional movement is still there, but it comes in bursts, with long pauses and returns to the range.
For trend-following algorithms this is one of the hardest environments. A position opens on a breakout, and the price then comes back. The result is many false signals and stop-losses with no follow-through.
Classic Diversified fell further than Classic Stable because its collateral holds bitcoin, and bitcoin fell with the market.
What we are doing
We are re-optimising the parameters of all our strategies to adapt them to the current, difficult market. The aim is not to fit the last few weeks but to tune the algorithms to the changed structure of price movement.
What comes next
Results during a drawdown are never pleasant. The nature of the strategies has not changed, however: in a sideways market they lose gradually, and they have recovered quickly when the market broke out of a range with a strong move.
August is a recent example. After a consolidation of several months the market gave a strong impulse, and in that one month Classic Diversified returned +35.40% and Classic Stable +16.68%. The algorithms are built to capture the same kind of move when the market leaves its current range.
A horizon of three years or more
A single month or quarter does not show how effective a strategy is. It has to be judged over a long distance, and over that distance the returns remain strong. In the 24 months to 31 October 2026 Classic Stable returned +96.36% and Classic Diversified +95.80%, against +10.28% for Bitcoin and +2.16% for BITA Crypto 10.
Since inception the compound annual return is +113.7% for Classic Diversified, from 1 October 2023, and +72.1% for Classic Stable, from 1 January 2024. All these figures are gross of performance fees.
Spike
Spike, our strategy based on neural networks, stays out of the market most of the time, and it went through October noticeably more smoothly. The simulated Spike Diversified returned −1.58% and Spike Stable +0.36%. These are simulations in forward testing, not returns on client funds. The outcome of the test will decide whether Spike is added to client portfolios.